China-LAC Trade: Four Scenarios in 2035

TATIANA PRAZERES, DAVID BOHL, AND PEPE ZHANG (ATLANTIC COUNCIL)

Trade between China and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) experienced dramatic growth since the early 2000s. Going forward, China is poised to solidify its position as a leading regional trading partner.

By 2035, trade values will likely reach unprecedented levels. This, accompanied by greater Chinese investment and financial flows, will further increase China’s economic importance for LAC countries, with potential implications for prosperity and geopolitics in the region and beyond. In addition, the composition of LAC exports to China is likely to differ from today’s. Regional governments and businesses must think and plan ahead.

To provide greater insight into future commercial scenarios, “China-LAC Trade 2035” aims to trigger policy discussions and influence actions based on how this growing relationship may evolve. Drawing on economic modeling developed by the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver, as well as varied assumptions regarding economic growth and trade relations, this report outlines four scenarios for China-LAC trade through 2035.

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